Oil has been the most exploited energy source in the world since the mid-20th century, by boosting the so-called “second industrial revolution” and thus becoming the driving force for the expansion of industries and of the production of machinery and vehicles, and for the technological innovations in the period. Currently, the resource remains central in almost all regions of the world and may maintain that position over the next decades, although the share of alternative energy sources, renewable or not, has been increasing in the global energy matrix.
In this issue of Panorama Internacional, we reflect on this theme, which is as ubiquitous as relevant in the globe, with very diverse local impacts. Given the diversity and the comprehensiveness of this topic, we do not intend to exhaust discussions or even to provide definitive answers to intricate questions. On the contrary, such complexity enables the development of multidisciplinary and multilevel investigations on the subject, which is so relevant for public officials, private sector entrepreneurs, researchers, students and other stakeholders.
Although petroleum has aroused interest uninterruptedly for decades, it is relevant to point out some of the motivations to highlight this topic at this time. First, at the national level, the discussion about the regime of oil exploitation often takes too simplistic shapes, for instance, on what the best form to exploit it is, either under state control or by opening up the sector to private competition. This debate, which has been accompanying the very existence of the government-owned Petrobras since the 1950s, resumes when the company is in adverse situations, especially in a financial point of view, as nowadays. Second, the fall in oil prices, a noticeable trend since mid-2014, has generated quite contradictory impacts in many regions of the world. The effects are not homogeneous for each region, comprising exporters and importers. As for the exporters, some of them, such as Saudi Arabia, managed to enhance their share in the global market. On the other hand, some importers, aiming at reducing costs and obtaining a certain relief in their current accounts, might lose the incentive to invest in alternative and/or local energy sources, thus increasing their external vulnerability in the medium and long term.
Readers will notice an understanding common to all texts that the topic of the debate cannot be simplified to an accounting relation of cost-benefit in a given period. In this case, the discussion should start from the assumption that petroleum, while it remains an important global energy source, should be perceived as a strategic resource to provide energy security for a given nation, to be an instrument of power in the global geopolitics, to acquire means to boost economic development, to mitigate social and interregional inequalities, to enable technological enhancement, among other uses.
The array of the articles in this issue exhibits a certain logic, from the global context towards local problems. Our starting point is an analysis by researcher Ricardo F. Leães about the dynamics of global oil flows and the strategy of some of its key players. The author stresses that, beyond the movements in the demand side, such as the decrease in the “Chinese appetite,” as emphasized on the conventional wisdom, we should also bear in mind the structure on the supply side. Two movements may be helpful to understand the ongoing changes in this context: (a) the reduction of energy vulnerability of the United States, which has been expanding internal oil production and acquiring it from more reliable sources, especially Canada; (b) the role of Saudi Arabia, which has shown interest in keeping prices below U$50 a barrel, possibly to harm actual and potential competitors, particularly Russia and Iran. The continuity of this situation may broaden the room for maneuver of Saudi Arabia and other Gulf monarchies, but might harm most global exporters, and even induce importers to increase their oil dependence and to decrease their interest in alternative energy sources.
Concerning Latin America, Thomas Fiori develops a comparative examination of oil property regimes in four nations, three of which are more industrialized economies (Argentina, Brazil, Mexico), and the fourth (Venezuela) is a leading global producer of oil. The author seeks to show that the sector, at least among the selected cases, is not limited to a logic of increasing revenues and reducing costs. It is also necessary to understand some aspects of policy and international security, such as sensitivity (which refers to the susceptibility of a given system to external shocks) and vulnerability (which is the responsiveness or adaptation to external shocks). Thus, the states strive not only to minimize their costs, but also to reduce their external vulnerability, which explains the many possibilities of solving the relationship between state and market, regarding the control of oil property.
In the domestic realm, Cecilia R. Hoff explores the relevance of Petrobras for the Brazilian economy, despite the economic crisis in the country. In addition to the relevance of its size, the company has significantly increased its contribution to the variable gross fixed capital formation after the crisis of 2008. The author also brings up a relevant fact: the company’s physical production has increased, despite the financial difficulties and the Brazilian economic crisis. In addition, the state-owned enterprise has sought to dampen price volatility in the international market, thus ensuring that domestic prices do not oscillate at the same frequency, reducing the impact on inflation. So far, the economic crisis has played a role to resize or even to suspend several relevant projects, and at the same time the company has been impelled to focus on some activities regarded as essential, such as the exploitation of the pre-salt layer oil fields.
Finally, researchers Cesar S. Conceição and Roberto P. da Rocha scrutinize the investment policies of Petrobras and their effects on the shipbuilding sector in Rio Grande, in the southernmost region of the State of Rio Grande do Sul. They put forward the hypothesis that certain government policies in the first decade of the current century, particularly the reactivation of investments in the oil sector, have led to the development of some sectors in that region, such as shipbuilding, equipment and components for ships, as well as platforms for offshore oil exploration and production. They present some of the results of such activity in the labor market of the local shipbuilding sector in the early 2010s, but also point to a reversal of this trend since 2015. In this essay, which has an intertextuality with Hoff’s, the authors conclude that the increasing difficulties of the cash flow of the company since 2014 have caused a retraction in its activities and investments, endangering the continuity of the remarkable progress of the naval industry in Rio Grande in recent years.
The interviewee of the current issue is Lucas K. de Oliveira, Associate Professor of International Relations at the Federal University for Latin American Integration (UNILA) and researcher at the Center of Studies on Government (Cegov). He has developed research on energy security issues and conflicts in oil producing regions. He points out the existence of a constant clash between the great powers over the control not only of oil production, but also of its distribution and its revenues, and makes some comments on the consequences for Brazil.
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